WP2 - Data assimilation
Tomaso Esposti Ongaro (WP Coordinator); Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi (WP2.1), Stefano Corradini (WP2.2)
Main goals: designing the mathematical framework and a computational infrastructure for incorporating observational data into the tephra dispersal forecasting system in real-time. This is addressed in the project as the “nowcasting system”.
By using the most updated weather forecast data and a set of volcanological parameters related to the most frequent eruptive scenarios of Etna, today INGV-OE is able to provide timely useful information and simulation on the development of a possible ash cloud. However, such a forecasting activity is based on input parameters characterizing pre-defined scenarios, hence model forecasts do not match any real eruption and the results may quantitatively differ from actual observations. In Ash-RESILIENCE, new assimilation strategies and algorithms aimed to quickly and robustly integrate and process observational data (e.g. real time satellite data), together with inversion procedures, will be developed in order to update and improve the forecasts as soon as new data are available. Such a procedure will allow quantifying and potentially reduce the uncertainty on the predicted distribution of tephra both at ground and in the atmosphere, providing a clear added-value for operational management of the air traffic and urban environment.